Guest post by: Tim Newell, Founder and CEO, GreenFi

Forget Washington. The Most Powerful Force in Climate Is the American Consumer.

As the Trump administration dismantles key pillars of the federal climate framework and major companies quietly abandon their sustainability commitments, something unexpected is happening in the American economy: consumers are filling the vacuum.

Millions of Americans are doing something the political system cannot easily undo — voting with their wallets. They are buying electric vehicles, installing solar panels, shifting retirement savings, and asking harder questions about where their money goes. In a $20 trillion consumer economy, that kind of demand doesn’t just follow markets. It moves them.

The evidence is in what American consumers are actually doing. In 2025, Americans bought electrified vehicles at the highest rate in U.S. history,¹ with automakers committing more than $500 billion globally² to meet that demand — driven by consumer pull as much as by anything Washington ever required.

Heat pumps outsold gas furnaces for the fourth consecutive year,³ with manufacturers shipping 12% more heat pumps than gas furnaces.⁴ Nearly five million U.S. homes⁵ now carry rooftop solar. And across the food aisle, U.S. organic sales reached $76.6 billion in 2025⁶ — growing at nearly three times the rate of the overall food market. These are not survey responses. They are purchases — capital decisions by tens of millions of households, playing out across every corner of the American economy.

Consumer surveys reinforce what the receipts already show. Deloitte’s consumer tracker found that nearly half of U.S. consumers actually bought a sustainable product in a given month in 2024⁷ — not a stated intention, but a transaction. A PwC survey of more than 20,000 consumers across 31 countries found that 80% say they’ll pay more for sustainable products, with an average premium of 9.7%.⁸ Simon-Kucher’s 2024 Global Sustainability Study found that 54% of consumers are now willing to pay more — up from 35% just a few years ago.⁹

On every measure — actual purchases, stated intent, willingness to pay — consumer climate behavior is accelerating.

The numbers translate into real market scale. Sustainably marketed products already represent nearly 25% of U.S. consumer retail spending,¹⁰ according to Capital One Shopping — and consumers are paying 26.6% more for them¹¹ than for conventional alternatives. Consumers are buying more sustainable products — and paying more for them.

Even if you discount every willingness-to-pay survey by half — a fair adjustment for the gap between what people say and what they actually do — roughly a quarter of American households are already making meaningfully different choices. If those households shift just 5 to 10 percent of their spending toward lower-carbon products, the result is $125 to $250 billion in redirected demand every year.

Even on conservative assumptions, a quarter of American households redirecting just 5–10% of their spending toward lower-carbon products generates $125 to $250 billion in annual demand. That doesn’t nudge industries. It restructures them.

The skeptic’s case deserves a hearing. Ford wrote off $19.5 billion¹² on its electric vehicle bets. GM took a $6 billion writedown.¹³ The headlines declared the EV revolution was stalling.

But look at what consumers were actually doing. For the first time in American history, more than one in five new vehicles sold was electrified — a record.¹⁴ In light trucks, America’s most popular vehicle segment, electrified pickups set all-time sales records.¹⁵ In SUVs, nearly half of buyers of the country’s best-selling models chose the hybrid — numbers so decisive that Toyota redesigned its top-selling vehicle as exclusively hybrid for 2026.¹⁶

The corporate story and the consumer story were pointing in opposite directions.

The $160 Trillion Climate Lever: Household Balance Sheets

The bigger story, though, may be less about what Americans buy than where they put their money. U.S. households hold more than $160 trillion in net worth¹⁷ — in retirement accounts, brokerage portfolios, bank deposits, and home equity. Even as some asset managers have quietly dropped the sustainability label under political pressure, American investors have directed more than one in ten dollars of professionally managed capital into sustainable strategies.¹⁸

American households hold more than $160 trillion in net worth. In a market that size, even a small change in direction creates an enormous force.

And that force is about to grow. Cerulli Associates estimates that $124 trillion will transfer to younger households over the next 25 years¹⁹ — the largest wealth shift in American history. Baby boomers alone hold roughly $83 trillion, more than half of all U.S. household wealth.²⁰ As that money moves, it moves with different values attached. Millennials’ net worth has nearly quadrupled in just five years, from $3.9 trillion to $16 trillion.²¹ This is a generation that grew up with climate as a lived reality, not a distant risk.

The business implication is straightforward. Climate strategy is no longer primarily about managing regulation or satisfying activist shareholders.

It is about reading your customers. Companies that understood this early — in autos, in home energy, in finance — found new markets. Companies that ignore that signal do so at their peril. Consumers didn’t wait for Washington. They won’t wait for boardrooms.

On climate, we track every move Washington makes. We follow every corporate announcement. The real story is somewhere else. Washington stepped back. Corporations followed. Consumers didn’t.

 

1U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). “Electric vehicle sales fell as hybrid vehicle sales continued to rise in 2025.” January 2026. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67144. Approximately 22% of light-duty vehicle sales in 2025 were electrified (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, or battery electric), up from 20% in 2024, representing the highest share in U.S. history. Note: Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales specifically declined following expiration of federal tax credits on September 30, 2025; the record refers to the broader electrified category including hybrids.

2International Energy Agency (IEA). Global EV Outlook 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/executive-summary. Investment announcements in EV and battery manufacturing totalled almost USD 500 billion from 2022 to 2023; overall global commitments are projected to reach $1.2 trillion through 2030. See also Accelerating to Zero Coalition, Progress Update reports, https://acceleratingtozero.org/progress-update-automakers-accelerate-toward-an-electric-future/.

3Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) shipment data. Heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces annually since 2021. Third consecutive year (through 2024): Rewiring America. “Heat Pumps outsell gas furnaces for third straight year.” https://www.rewiringamerica.org/research/heat-pumps-outsell-gas-furnaces-third-year. Fourth consecutive year (2025): ACHR News. “Heat Pump, A/C Shipments See 20% Declines in 2025.” https://www.achrnews.com/articles/165859-heat-pump-a-c-shipments-see-20-declines-in-2025.

4AHRI 2025 shipment data: 3.6 million heat pumps versus 3.2 million gas furnaces shipped in 2025. ACHR News, 2025. https://www.achrnews.com/articles/165859-heat-pump-a-c-shipments-see-20-declines-in-2025. Note: While heat pumps continued to outsell gas furnaces, total HVAC shipments declined in 2025 vs. 2024.

5Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). “America Exceeds Five Million Solar Installations Nationwide.” https://seia.org/news/5million/. As of early 2025, approximately 4.7 million U.S. homes have residential rooftop solar; total installations including commercial exceed 5 million. See also SEIA Solar Market Insight Report 2025 Year in Review. https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2025-year-in-review/.

6Organic Trade Association (OTA). U.S. organic food sales rose nearly 7% in 2025 to

$76.6 billion, growing at approximately three times the rate of the overall food market. Reported in Food Business News, March 2026. https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/29922-us-organic-sales-increase-nearly-7-in-2025.

7Deloitte. “Customer expectations of sustainable products.” Deloitte State of the Consumer Tracker, 2024. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/consumer-behavior-trends-state-of-the-consumer-tracker/sustainable-products-customer-expectations.html. September 2024 tracker: approximately 47% of consumers surveyed reported purchasing a sustainable product in the previous four weeks. Note: Deloitte’s tracker surveys a global consumer panel; U.S.-specific data may differ.

8PwC. “PwC 2024 Voice of the Consumer Survey.” Survey of more than 20,000 consumers across 31 countries. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/c-suite-insights/voice-of-the-consumer-survey/2024.html. Note: Global survey; U.S.-specific willingness-to-pay data may vary from the global average.

9Simon-Kucher. “2024 Global Sustainability Study: Majority willing to pay more for green products.” Survey of 6,120 consumers across six countries including the United States. https://www.simon-kucher.com/en/who-we-are/newsroom/simon-kucher-unveils-2024-global-sustainability-study-majority-willing-pay-more. The 35% baseline figure is from Simon-Kucher’s 2022 Global Sustainability Study. https://www.simon-kucher.com/en/insights/2022-global-sustainability-study-growth-potential-environmental-change.

10Capital One Shopping Research. “Eco-Conscious Consumer Statistics & Trends (2026 Report).” https://capitaloneshopping.com/research/eco-conscious-consumer-statistics/. Sustainably marketed products represented 24.8% of U.S. consumer retail spending in 2025; the piece rounds to “nearly 25%.”

11Ibid. Capital One Shopping Research, 2026. Consumers paid an average of 26.6% more for eco-friendly products compared to conventional products of similar kind and quality in 2024.

12CNBC. “Ford to record $19.5 billion in special charges as it pulls back on EV plans.” December 15, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/15/ford-ev-pullback.html. Charges included $8.5 billion in asset write-downs plus costs from cancellation of next-generation EV programs including the F-150 Lightning successor.

13Reuters / U.S. News & World Report. “GM to Take $6 Billion Writedown on EV Pullback.” January 8, 2026. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-01-08/gm-to-take-6-billion-writedown-on-ev-pullback. Approximately $4.2 billion is a cash charge related to contract cancellations and supplier settlements resulting from reduced EV production targets.

14EIA, op. cit. (see footnote 1). Approximately 22% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2025 were electrified — the highest share in U.S. history. See also CarEdge. “Electric Vehicle Sales and Market Share (US – 2026 Updates).” https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales.

15Ford Motor Company. U.S. Q4 and Full Year 2025 Sales Release. January 6, 2026. https://s205.q4cdn.com/882619693/files/doc_news/2026/Jan/06/Ford-U-S-Q4-2025-Sales-Release.pdf. The F-150 Hybrid set a full-year record of 84,934 units in 2025 (up 15% year-over-year) and a Q4 record of 24,159 units. Ford sold a record 228,072 electrified vehicles in 2025 across all models, up 21.7%. See also Ford Newsroom. “Ford Sales Rose 6% in 2025 on Torrid Truck, Hybrid Demand.” https://www.fromtheroad.ford.com/us/en/articles/2026/ford-2025-full-year-us-sales-results.

16Toyota Motor North America. “Toyota Motor North America Reports 2025 U.S. Sales Results.” https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-2025-u-s-sales-results/. The RAV4 — America’s best-selling SUV at approximately 479,000 units in 2025 — was redesigned as an exclusively hybrid/PHEV lineup for the 2026 model year. See also Toyota USA Newsroom. “The Next Adventure Begins: 2026 RAV4 Arrives this Winter.” https://pressroom.toyota.com/the-next-adventure-begins-2026-rav4-arrives-this-winter/. Hybrid and PHEV models together represented approximately half of RAV4 sales in 2025 prior to the full-model redesign.

17Federal Reserve. Distributional Financial Accounts (Z.1 Release). https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/. As of Q2 2025, U.S. household net worth totaled $167.3 trillion. The piece cites “more than $150 trillion,” which is accurate but conservative; authors may wish to consider updating to the most current Fed figure. See also Empower. “Q2 2025 Wealth Watch Report: Net worth surges $7T.” https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/wealth-watch-report-q2-2025-news.

18US SIF: The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment. “US Sustainable Investing Trends 2024/2025.” December 2024. https://www.ussif.org/research/trends-reports/us-sustainable-investing-trends-2024-2025-executive-summary. The report identifies $6.5 trillion in U.S. sustainable investment assets, representing 12% of the $52.5 trillion in total U.S. assets under professional management. The piece’s “more than one in ten dollars” accurately reflects this 12% share.

19Cerulli Associates. “Cerulli Anticipates $124 Trillion in Wealth Will Transfer Through 2048.” Press release, June 2025. https://www.cerulli.com/press-releases/cerulli-anticipates-124-trillion-in-wealth-will-transfer-through-2048. Of the total, approximately $105 trillion is projected to flow to heirs and $18 trillion to charity. Nearly $100 trillion originates from Baby Boomers and older generations.

20Federal Reserve, op. cit. (see footnote 17). As of Q2 2025, Baby Boomers hold approximately $83.3 trillion, or 51.4% of total U.S. household wealth. The piece cites “roughly $78 trillion,” which reflects an earlier Fed snapshot; the current figure is somewhat higher. The “more than half” characterization remains accurate.

21Federal Reserve, op. cit. (see footnote 17); CNBC. “Net worth of millennials has jumped — why some call it phantom wealth.” January 27, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/01/27/net-worth-of-millennials-has-jumped-why-some-call-it-phantom-wealth.html. Federal Reserve data shows millennial net worth rose from $3.94 trillion (Q3 2019) to approximately $15.95 trillion (Q3 2024). Note: The piece states net worth “quadrupled”; the more precise characterization supported by current Fed data is “nearly quadrupled.” Authors may wish to update this language.